Counter-trend strategies rely on the fact that most breakouts do not develop into long-term trends. Therefore, a trader using such a strategy seeks to gain an edge from the tendency of prices to bounce off previously established highs and lows. On paper, counter-trend strategies are the best Forex trading strategies for building confidence, because they have a high success ratio.
For all economic calendar indicators, you will find the Previous number: that is the data in its last release (frequency of data release is variable: it can be last month, last trimester…). For most indicators, we add a Consensus number: that is a general agreement of experts on the outcome of the number. When the Actual data is released, it’s immediately displayed at the right of the volatility indicator. Better or worse than expected? If we had a consensus published, it comes either in green (it means the data is better than expected) or in red (worse than expected). The Deviation ratio is an FXStreet exclusive calculation which measures the surprise caused by an event when the Actual data differs from the Consensus. Its number usually oscillates in an open scale between -7 and +7.
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The Germany 30 chart above depicts an approximate two year head and shoulders pattern, which aligns with a probable fall below the neckline (horizontal red line) subsequent to the right-hand shoulder. In this selected example, the downward fall of the Germany 30 played out as planned technically as well as fundamentally. Towards the end of 2018, Germany went through a technical recession along with the US/China trade war hurting the automotive industry. Brexit negotiations did not help matters as the possibility of the UK leaving the EU would most likely negatively impact the German economy as well. In this case, understanding technical patterns as well as having strong fundamental foundations allowed for combining technical and fundamental analysis to structure a strong trade idea.
If the indicator can establish a time when there's an improved chance that a trend has begun, you are tilting the odds in your favour. The indication that a trend might be forming is called a breakout. A breakout is when the price moves beyond the highest high or the lowest low for a specified number of days. For example, a 20-day breakout to the upside is when the price goes above the highest high of the last 20 days.
Forex trading requires putting together multiple factors to formulate a trading strategy that works for you. There are countless strategies that can be followed, however, understanding and being comfortable with the strategy is essential. Every trader has unique goals and resources, which must be taken into consideration when selecting the suitable strategy.
When trading forex, you always speculate on whether the price of the base currency will rise or fall against the counter currency. So in AUD/USD if you think AUD will rise against USD, you go long (buy) the currency pair. Alternatively, if you think AUD will fall against USD (or that USD will rise against AUD), you go short (sell) the currency pair.
What happens when the market approaches recent lows? Put simply, buyers will be attracted to what they regard as cheap. What happens when the market approaches recent highs? Sellers will be attracted to what they view as either expensive, or a good place to lock in a profit. Therefore, recent highs and lows are the yardstick by which current prices are evaluated.