For all economic calendar indicators, you will find the Previous number: that is the data in its last release (frequency of data release is variable: it can be last month, last trimester…). For most indicators, we add a Consensus number: that is a general agreement of experts on the outcome of the number. When the Actual data is released, it’s immediately displayed at the right of the volatility indicator. Better or worse than expected? If we had a consensus published, it comes either in green (it means the data is better than expected) or in red (worse than expected). The Deviation ratio is an FXStreet exclusive calculation which measures the surprise caused by an event when the Actual data differs from the Consensus. Its number usually oscillates in an open scale between -7 and +7.
You may have heard that maintaining your discipline is a key aspect of trading. While this is true, how can you ensure you enforce that discipline when you are in a trade? One way to help is to have a trading strategy that you can stick to. If it is well-reasoned and back-tested, you can be confident that you are using one of the successful Forex trading strategies. That confidence will make it easier to follow the rules of your strategy—therefore, to maintain your discipline.
Currency markets are important to a broad range of participants, from banks, brokers, hedge funds and investor traders who trade FX. Any company that operates or has customers overseas will need to trade currency. Central banks can also be active in currency markets, as they seek to keep the currency they are responsible for trading within a specific range.
A forex trading strategy defines a system that a forex trader uses to determine when to buy or sell a currency pair. There are various forex strategies that traders can use including technical analysis or fundamental analysis. A good forex trading strategy allows for a trader to analyse the market and confidently execute trades with sound risk management techniques.
The best forex traders swear by daily charts over more short-term strategies. Compared to the forex 1-hour trading strategy, or even those with lower time-frames, there is less market noise involved with daily charts. Such charts can give you over 100 pips a day due to their longer timeframe, which has the potential to result in some of the best forex trades.
Strong trending markets work best for carry trades as the strategy involves a lengthier time horizon. Confirmation of the trend should be the first step prior to placing the trade (higher highs and higher lows and vice versa) – refer to Example 1 above. There are two aspects to a carry trade namely, exchange rate risk and interest rate risk. Accordingly, the best time to open the positions is at the start of a trend to capitalise fully on the exchange rate fluctuation. Regarding the interest rate component, this will remain the same regardless of the trend as the trader will still receive the interest rate differential if the first named currency has a higher interest rate against the second named currency e.g. AUD/JPY.
If traders are positive on the prospects for the Yen, they would expect the number on the right to go down – i.e. the Yen would be getting stronger against the Dollar. Traders would be buying less Yen with a Dollar as the Yen got stronger. Similarly, if the Yen was expected to weaken, forex traders would expect the Yen number to go up, reflecting the fact that the dollar could buy more yen.
When trading forex, you always speculate on whether the price of the base currency will rise or fall against the counter currency. So in AUD/USD if you think AUD will rise against USD, you go long (buy) the currency pair. Alternatively, if you think AUD will fall against USD (or that USD will rise against AUD), you go short (sell) the currency pair.