There is an additional rule for trading when the market state is more favourable to the system. This rule is designed to filter out breakouts that go against the long-term trend. In short, you look at the 25-day moving average (MA) and the 300-day moving average. The direction of the shorter moving average determines the direction that is permitted. This rule states that you can only go:
A forex trading strategy works really well when traders follow the rules. But just like anything else, one particular strategy may not always be a one-size-fits-all approach, so what works today may not necessarily work tomorrow. If a strategy isn't proving to be profitable and isn't producing the desired results, traders may consider the following before changing a game plan:
Forex trading strategies can be either manual or automated methods for generating trading signals. Manual systems involve a trader sitting in front of a computer screen, looking for trading signals and interpreting whether to buy or sell. Automated systems involve a trader developing an algorithm that finds trading signals and executes trades on its own. The latter systems take human emotion out of the equation and may improve performance.
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When it comes to price patterns, the most important concepts include ones such as support and resistance. Put simply, these terms represent the tendency of a market to bounce back from previous lows and highs. Support is the market's tendency to rise from a previously established low. Resistance is the market's tendency to fall from a previously established high. This occurs because market participants tend to judge subsequent prices against recent highs and lows.
Strong trending markets work best for carry trades as the strategy involves a lengthier time horizon. Confirmation of the trend should be the first step prior to placing the trade (higher highs and higher lows and vice versa) – refer to Example 1 above. There are two aspects to a carry trade namely, exchange rate risk and interest rate risk. Accordingly, the best time to open the positions is at the start of a trend to capitalise fully on the exchange rate fluctuation. Regarding the interest rate component, this will remain the same regardless of the trend as the trader will still receive the interest rate differential if the first named currency has a higher interest rate against the second named currency e.g. AUD/JPY.
Any nation’s central bank, adjusts the rates of interest from time to time in order to contain or curb the inflationary trends. This, in turn, has a definitive effect on the currency market and traders assume trading positions accordingly. The central bank of a country does not act as it is a solid body. The interest rate is increased or decreased based on the vote cast by the members of the monetary policy committee. The number of members monetary committee varies from one bank to another. If the interest rate is cut, there will be more money in circulation. This makes it cheaper. If the interest rate is hiked, its value increases.
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What happens when the market approaches recent lows? Put simply, buyers will be attracted to what they regard as cheap. What happens when the market approaches recent highs? Sellers will be attracted to what they view as either expensive, or a good place to lock in a profit. Therefore, recent highs and lows are the yardstick by which current prices are evaluated.