Trend-following systems require a particular mindset, because of the long duration—during which time profits can disappear as the market swings—these trades can be more psychologically demanding. When markets are volatile, trends will tend to be more disguised and price swings will be greater. Therefore, a trend-following system is the best trading strategy for Forex markets that are quiet and trending.
If the indicator can establish a time when there's an improved chance that a trend has begun, you are tilting the odds in your favour. The indication that a trend might be forming is called a breakout. A breakout is when the price moves beyond the highest high or the lowest low for a specified number of days. For example, a 20-day breakout to the upside is when the price goes above the highest high of the last 20 days.

Locating the trend: Markets trend and consolidate, and this process repeats in cycles. The first principle of this style is to find the long drawn out moves within the forex markets. One way to identify forex trends is by studying 180 periods worth of forex data. Identifying the swing highs and lows will be the next step. By referencing this price data on the current charts, you will be able to identify the market direction.


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The forex market is a very volatile market. When the market is volatile, traders get lessons on how to hedge, develop and acquire broad/diverse portfolios, and act on low leverage to exploit the prevailing market condition. There are two different types of volatility. They are historical and implied volatility. The former refers to the normal price action with respect to a period of time (say, a month or year). Abnormal current and future price action is referred to as implied volatility. It often exceeds the historical range when compared with the historical price action.
The chart above shows a representative day trading setup using moving averages to identify the trend which is long in this case as the price is above the MA lines (red and black). Entry positions are highlighted in blue with stop levels placed at the previous price break. Take profit levels will equate to the stop distance in the direction of the trend.

Strong trending markets work best for carry trades as the strategy involves a lengthier time horizon. Confirmation of the trend should be the first step prior to placing the trade (higher highs and higher lows and vice versa) – refer to Example 1 above. There are two aspects to a carry trade namely, exchange rate risk and interest rate risk. Accordingly, the best time to open the positions is at the start of a trend to capitalise fully on the exchange rate fluctuation. Regarding the interest rate component, this will remain the same regardless of the trend as the trader will still receive the interest rate differential if the first named currency has a higher interest rate against the second named currency e.g. AUD/JPY.

Hi Rayner reading through, I come to realize without any doubt I am a swing trader, due to my full time a very demanding job which I would like to be knowledgeable and profitable with trading to catch a break. My question here is since I know what kind of trader I am and I like the trend following strategy, how can I create a trading plan that as I follow to the T, will give me an edge as u always say, in the market.
Forex is always traded in pairs – for example AUD/USD. You speculate on whether the price of one country's currency will rise or fall against the currency of another country, and take a position accordingly. Looking at the AUD/USD currency pair, the first currency (AUD) is called the 'base currency' and the second currency (USD) is known as the 'counter currency'. 
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Strong trending markets work best for carry trades as the strategy involves a lengthier time horizon. Confirmation of the trend should be the first step prior to placing the trade (higher highs and higher lows and vice versa) – refer to Example 1 above. There are two aspects to a carry trade namely, exchange rate risk and interest rate risk. Accordingly, the best time to open the positions is at the start of a trend to capitalise fully on the exchange rate fluctuation. Regarding the interest rate component, this will remain the same regardless of the trend as the trader will still receive the interest rate differential if the first named currency has a higher interest rate against the second named currency e.g. AUD/JPY.
For this strategy, we will use the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicator. The previous week's last daily candlestick has to be closed at a level above the EMA value. Now we have to look for the moment when the previous week's maximum level was broken. Next, a buy stop order is placed on the H4 closed candlestick, at the price level of the broken level.

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