This method is all about analyzing important news happenings on different fronts in a nation and understanding the implications that they will have on the currency market. The trader will then place the trades accordingly. The market moves in an unpredictable manner when there are sudden political or economic happenings in any nation. As the forex market operates round the clock, news flows in from all parts of the world. Trading on the basis of economic news and data suits all kinds of traders wherever they are and whichever currency they choose to trade.
Strong trending markets work best for carry trades as the strategy involves a lengthier time horizon. Confirmation of the trend should be the first step prior to placing the trade (higher highs and higher lows and vice versa) – refer to Example 1 above. There are two aspects to a carry trade namely, exchange rate risk and interest rate risk. Accordingly, the best time to open the positions is at the start of a trend to capitalise fully on the exchange rate fluctuation. Regarding the interest rate component, this will remain the same regardless of the trend as the trader will still receive the interest rate differential if the first named currency has a higher interest rate against the second named currency e.g. AUD/JPY.
Forex traders evaluate currencies and the countries much like how equities and companies are evaluated to get a clear idea of the currency’s value. The value of a currency changes due to many factors such as economic growth of the nation and its financial strength. All this information is analyzed by the forex traders to evaluate the value of its currency. Fundamental trading strategies cannot be easily mastered by a newbie forex trader. Given below are some trading methods that use fundamental analysis.
Depicted as yellow/orange/red bars, the impact is a basic indicator of the potential move a data release might trigger on currencies. Shall a bar be red and long, market observers expect this data to have great probability to move the Forex market. Shall this bar be yellow and short, the probability is viewed as low. In orange, we’re just in between.
This strategy leverages early market moves of certain highly liquid currency pairs. The GBPUSD and EURUSD currency pairs are some of the best currencies to trade using this particular strategy. After the 7am GMT candlestick closes, traders place two positions or two opposite pending orders. When one of them gets activated by price movements, the other position is automatically cancelled.
Since forex is traded on margin, you only have to deposit a percentage of the full amount you wish to trade. Our margins start from 0.20%, which could be referred to as 500:1 leverage, as the value of the full position would be 500 times the value of the deposit required to open the trade. When trading on margin it's important to remember that your profits or losses are based on the full value of the position, not just the percentage you deposited, so you can lose more than your initial deposit.
The Germany 30 chart above depicts an approximate two year head and shoulders pattern, which aligns with a probable fall below the neckline (horizontal red line) subsequent to the right-hand shoulder. In this selected example, the downward fall of the Germany 30 played out as planned technically as well as fundamentally. Towards the end of 2018, Germany went through a technical recession along with the US/China trade war hurting the automotive industry. Brexit negotiations did not help matters as the possibility of the UK leaving the EU would most likely negatively impact the German economy as well. In this case, understanding technical patterns as well as having strong fundamental foundations allowed for combining technical and fundamental analysis to structure a strong trade idea.
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For this strategy, we will use the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicator. The previous week's last daily candlestick has to be closed at a level above the EMA value. Now we have to look for the moment when the previous week's maximum level was broken. Next, a buy stop order is placed on the H4 closed candlestick, at the price level of the broken level.
The chart above shows a representative day trading setup using moving averages to identify the trend which is long in this case as the price is above the MA lines (red and black). Entry positions are highlighted in blue with stop levels placed at the previous price break. Take profit levels will equate to the stop distance in the direction of the trend.
This strategy is employed by forex traders as a long-term plan to make the trades profitable. The indicator mainly uses the ‘Pullback’ and the ‘Trend’, both of which are fundamental in nature. In order to have a complete understanding as to how this strategy works, traders must be familiar with the more fundamental concept called ‘the trend’. It is very difficult to explain each individual price change and determine a pattern as there will be many of them. Traders need to look at the bigger picture in order to see trends. The three key Fibonacci numbers that traders should always remember are 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618. They should also keep in mind 0.764 and 0.236.
Trend-following systems require a particular mindset, because of the long duration—during which time profits can disappear as the market swings—these trades can be more psychologically demanding. When markets are volatile, trends will tend to be more disguised and price swings will be greater. Therefore, a trend-following system is the best trading strategy for Forex markets that are quiet and trending.
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Many forex traders start with a simple trading strategy. For example, they may notice that a specific currency pair tends to rebound from a particular support or resistance level. They may then decide to add other elements that improve the accuracy of these trading signals over time. For instance, they may require that the price rebound from a specific support level by a certain percentage or number of pips.