Any nation’s central bank, adjusts the rates of interest from time to time in order to contain or curb the inflationary trends. This, in turn, has a definitive effect on the currency market and traders assume trading positions accordingly. The central bank of a country does not act as it is a solid body. The interest rate is increased or decreased based on the vote cast by the members of the monetary policy committee. The number of members monetary committee varies from one bank to another. If the interest rate is cut, there will be more money in circulation. This makes it cheaper. If the interest rate is hiked, its value increases.
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Strong trending markets work best for carry trades as the strategy involves a lengthier time horizon. Confirmation of the trend should be the first step prior to placing the trade (higher highs and higher lows and vice versa) – refer to Example 1 above. There are two aspects to a carry trade namely, exchange rate risk and interest rate risk. Accordingly, the best time to open the positions is at the start of a trend to capitalise fully on the exchange rate fluctuation. Regarding the interest rate component, this will remain the same regardless of the trend as the trader will still receive the interest rate differential if the first named currency has a higher interest rate against the second named currency e.g. AUD/JPY.
If traders are positive on the prospects for the Yen, they would expect the number on the right to go down – i.e. the Yen would be getting stronger against the Dollar. Traders would be buying less Yen with a Dollar as the Yen got stronger. Similarly, if the Yen was expected to weaken, forex traders would expect the Yen number to go up, reflecting the fact that the dollar could buy more yen.