Using the (CCI) as a tool to time entries, notice how each time CCI dipped below -100 (highlighted in blue), prices responded with a rally. Not all trades will work out this way, but because the trend is being followed, each dip caused more buyers to come into the market and push prices higher. In conclusion, identifying a strong trend is important for a fruitful trend trading strategy.
Traders who have chased the price as it bounces upward and have often suffered losses because of a sudden reversal would want to keep this strategy in their minds when trading currencies. By employing this simple strategy, they can determine whether the price will continue in the breakout direction or not. This helps them to increase their profits or reduce losses.
The factors mentioned above can also cause a currency to decline. For example, the currency of a country with low inflation will generally rise because that country's purchasing power is higher relative to other currencies. Even natural disasters such as earthquakes or tsunamis, which put a strain on a nation’s economy, can have a negative impact on a currency.
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Sometimes a market breaks out of a range, moving below the support or above the resistance to start a trend. How does this happen? When support breaks down and a market moves to new lows, buyers begin to hold off. This is because buyers are constantly noticing cheaper prices being established and want to wait for a bottom to be reached. At the same time, there will be traders who are selling in panic or simply being forced out of their positions.
Counter-trend strategies rely on the fact that most breakouts do not develop into long-term trends. Therefore, a trader using such a strategy seeks to gain an edge from the tendency of prices to bounce off previously established highs and lows. On paper, counter-trend strategies are the best Forex trading strategies for building confidence, because they have a high success ratio.
Stochastics are then used to identify entry points by looking for oversold signals highlighted by the blue rectangles on the stochastic and chart. Risk management is the final step whereby the ATR gives an indication of stop levels. The ATR figure is highlighted by the red circles. This figure represents the approximate number of pips away the stop level should be set. For example, if the ATR reads 41.8 (reflected in the last ATR reading) the trader would look to place the stop 41.8 pips away from entry. At DailyFX, we recommend trading with a positive risk-reward ratio at a minimum of 1:2. This would mean setting a take profit level (limit) at least 83.6 (41.8 x 2) pips away or further.
If traders are positive on the prospects for the Yen, they would expect the number on the right to go down – i.e. the Yen would be getting stronger against the Dollar. Traders would be buying less Yen with a Dollar as the Yen got stronger. Similarly, if the Yen was expected to weaken, forex traders would expect the Yen number to go up, reflecting the fact that the dollar could buy more yen.