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Arbitrage is based on the premise of the forex trader trying to make a gain from small differences (of the currency) that exist either in the same or different markets. This is primarily a form of speculation. Identifying the right conditions and employing this strategy is not an easy task. Arbitrage strategy best market participants who have best technology systems and have quickest access to information. Arbitrage is best employed when the same currency has two different prices.
The ‘Elliot Wave Theory’, named after Ralph Elliot, is one of the oldest forex strategies. He analyzed the stock price data for around 70 years and found out that human psychology (emotions, fear and greed) drove the market and that it moved iteratively. This is to say that the market switches between optimistic and pessimistic modes. In this strategy, the motive phase unfurls in 5 steps.
The forex market is a very volatile market. When the market is volatile, traders get lessons on how to hedge, develop and acquire broad/diverse portfolios, and act on low leverage to exploit the prevailing market condition. There are two different types of volatility. They are historical and implied volatility. The former refers to the normal price action with respect to a period of time (say, a month or year). Abnormal current and future price action is referred to as implied volatility. It often exceeds the historical range when compared with the historical price action.
The scheduled disclosure of economic reports, official statements and statistical data often act as catalysts for enhanced volatility facing the valuations of currencies. For active traders, being aware of industry expectations, actual data and the exact timing of the event itself are integral aspects to help manage risk and maximize potential opportunity.
When trading forex, you always speculate on whether the price of the base currency will rise or fall against the counter currency. So in AUD/USD if you think AUD will rise against USD, you go long (buy) the currency pair. Alternatively, if you think AUD will fall against USD (or that USD will rise against AUD), you go short (sell) the currency pair.
Some of these factors include political stability, interest rates, inflation, terms of trade, public debt and current account deficits. For example, in the case of interest rates, if rates are higher, lenders get a better return compared to those in a country with lower rates; therefore the higher rates attract foreign capital which causes the exchange rate to rise. This is one of the reasons forex traders may look to trade on interest rate announcements from central banks like the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England.
Using the (CCI) as a tool to time entries, notice how each time CCI dipped below -100 (highlighted in blue), prices responded with a rally. Not all trades will work out this way, but because the trend is being followed, each dip caused more buyers to come into the market and push prices higher. In conclusion, identifying a strong trend is important for a fruitful trend trading strategy.
What happens when the market approaches recent lows? Put simply, buyers will be attracted to what they regard as cheap. What happens when the market approaches recent highs? Sellers will be attracted to what they view as either expensive, or a good place to lock in a profit. Therefore, recent highs and lows are the yardstick by which current prices are evaluated.