The key to creating a successful carry trade strategy is not simply to pair up the currency with the highest interest rate against a currency with the lowest rate. Rather, far more important than the absolute spread itself is the direction of the spread. In order for carry trades to work best, you need to be long in a currency with an interest rate that is in the process of expanding against a currency with a stationary or contracting interest rate. This dynamic can be true if the central bank of the country that you are long in is looking to raise interest rates or if the central bank of the country that you are short in is looking to lower interest rates.
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Knowing where interest rates are headed is important in forex trading and requires a good understanding of the underlying economics of the country in question. Generally speaking, countries that are performing very well, with strong growth rates and increasing inflation will probably raise interest rates to tame inflation and control growth. On the flip side, countries that are facing difficult economic conditions ranging from a broad slowdown in demand to a full recession will consider the possibility of reducing interest rates.
Since currencies are traded in pairs, it’s impractical and not very useful to draw a pure USD currency chart. Instead we have the option of drawing (or rather having the software plot for us) a chart of the USDJPY pair, or the AUDUSD pair, since it is only possible to quote a currency in terms of another. On the other hand, there are some forex charts that take weighted average of such currency pairs to derive an overall index for a currency. The famous USD index, is a good example.
USDCAD is on an uptrend since forming a support at 1.29500. Levels to watch: - The rebound on the support has formed a channel up similar to another two occasions. - The price just hit the MA50 and is consolidating. - The long term pattern is a bearish megaphone. - The bearish megaphone's lower highs are made when the price crosses the MA200. This is a top...
Currencies are traded on the Foreign Exchange market, also known as Forex. This is a decentralized market that spans the globe and is considered the largest by trading volume and the most liquid worldwide. Exchange rates fluctuate continuously due to the ever changing market forces of supply and demand. Forex traders buy a currency pair if they think the exchange rate will rise and sell it if they think the opposite will happen. The Forex market remains open around the world for 24 hours a day with the exception of weekends.